The marijuana industry may very soon overtake the soda market in terms of sales. Studies show that sales from cannabis merchandise are steadily growing while those of soda products are experiencing a decline.
If cannabis becomes made legal all over the US by 2030, a whopping $75 billion in sales could be recorded in that year, according to a report by Cowen, an investment bank in the US.
The report was done by Vivien Azer. Azer is the investment bank’s cannabis sector analyst.
She first estimated a $50 billion sale from the cannabis industry. Azer altered her report just recently because of the current data that sales from legal cannabis are reaching roughly $50 billion.
On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that soda intake has decreased in the US. In 2016 the per capita consumption dropped to its lowest in 31 years.
In 2017, the soda industry only accumulated a total of $76.4 billion in revenues.
The carbonated drink industry is not the only one experiencing these declines as alcohol companies are starting to see the impact of legal cannabis in their industry as well.
According to the note by Azer, in states with legal marijuana, the rates of alcohol consumption has dropped below the national average of 9%. Meanwhile, it fell to 11% in states that haven’t legalized recreational cannabis.
The report also disclosed that adults in the states which have legalized marijuana use drink alcohol 13% less monthly than the adults in states where recreational marijuana hasn’t been legalized yet.
In the document prepared by Azer, she wrote that this finding builds their prior claims that marijuana acts as an alternative “social lubricant” by the market.
She also added that as the access to marijuana expands and the legalization reform movement is getting more support, they expect further changes in the sales of alcohol and soda.
Azer also mentioned the noteworthy divide in the consumption pattern of customers. She said this will be vital in the movement of sales in those industries.
Constellation Brands, the American distributor of the Mexican Corona Beer, has bought a US$ 191 million stake in the largest publicly traded cannabis company in the world, Canopy Growth last year. This was a landmark first acquisition by a big alcohol company to buy into the growing cannabis industry.
However, the cannabis market has still a long way to go before they catch up with the sales of alcohol. In Azer’s report, alcohol sales reached $210 billion last year.
Currently, the fastest growing market of cannabis products are individuals over the age 55. The document notes that since the growth in the marijuana market is largely led by older individuals, it would take the legalization of recreational marijuana all over the country to fully maximize revenue.
Currently, there are 9 states that allow or may soon permit the consumption and sale of cannabis. This represents almost one-fourth of the total population of US.
The cannabis industry is also expected to create thousands of jobs and an estimated $17.5 billion proceeds in tax by 2030. With that amount, the government can levy for a tax windfall on the industry.
Last year, legal cannabis sales reached almost $10 billion. This amount hasn’t included the largest market so far, California where the sale of recreational cannabis only started January 1st this year.
BDS Analytics forecasts $5.1 billion in sales in California alone before 2020. If this happened, cannabis sales would surpass beer sales in the golden state.
The booming industry has still a lot to go as cannabis is still categorized as a Schedule I substance by the federal government at the moment.
Banks are also giving the businesses in the marijuana industry more problems. Currently, cannabis entrepreneurs can’t open bank accounts.
But probably the biggest adversary of the industry is one of the highest ranked officials of Trump’s administration-Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
The attorney general rescinded the laws passed in the time of former President Obama that limits the intervention of the federal government with cannabis businesses.